We’ve been working with a supplement brand in the US that launched in Q1 2020 for nearly 3 years now. Over that time they’ve relied heavily on paid Facebook ads for new customer acquisition. I was curious how their Facebook CACs & AOVs have trended over time, as this brand has been active through all of COVID & the iOS14.5 / ATT turbulence (as an aside, I was really trying to popularize the moniker IDFApocalypse but that didn’t stick, sadly).
As you can see in the table below, as the spend has increased the Facebook attributed 1-day click ROAS has dropped to around 1.0. You can also see a pretty clear drop off in attributed ROAS in Q2 of 2021 which coincides very neatly with the full rollout of iOS 14.5.
Meanwhile, the Google Analytics data tells a more positive story. The ROAS appears much more stable over time, particularly after the iOS 14.5 rollout. Recent months are still materially lower than when the brand launched, but when you consider the spend increase the ROAS decrease strikes me as expected performance degradation.
This table below shows the FB & GA ROAS side by side by month (again I would focus on Q2 2021 to see what I believe are the iOS 14.5 impacts):
1) I know there are many out there in LinkedIn/Twitter world that will be horrified by 1.0 1-day click ROAS. Whether or not that's objectively "good", it's important to note that this brand's blended ROAS/MER is consistently 2.5+ and thanks to very high margins it's a very profitable business.
2) I don't mean to suggest that this is particularly revolutionary data. Obviously, FB has a much harder time with attribution, and many people in the ecosystem have made the point that blended ROAS/MER for many of these brands have not fallen off a cliff.
3) Without a doubt it's exponentially more difficult to scale a D2C brand (or any consumer product) on FB today than it was 3 years ago. I don't want to obfuscate that reality. That caveat aside, this is a really positive case study for FB. This brand has spent $5m over the last 3 years, is increasing investment over time, sees healthy ROAS, and is profitable as a business.
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